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,Improving trade: Northport in operation. Gross exports and imports are expected to rebound to 8.2% and 9.1%, respectively, which will see a wider trade surplus of RM192.2bil as compared to RM184.8bil in 2020.

IN times of economic uncertainties where waves of disruption may delay the journey to recovery, Bank Negara’s guiding beacon provides the much needed light in navigating through uncharted waters.

Indeed, the central bank’s 2021 projections took on a cautiously optimistic tone but that is all the market needed to kick off the second quarter of the year on a more positive note as it moves forward from the gross domestic product (GDP) contraction of 5.6% in 2020.

The re-imposition of the movement control order (MCO) on Jan 13 may likely trigger another quarter of contraction or in Bank Negara’s words, a “slight drag on growth” – it will probably be the last as expectations are pointing towards an economic recovery, coupled with the low base last year.

The central bank projects a domestic economic rebound from the second quarter onwards, with a return to the pre-pandemic levels of 2019 by mid-2021.

Kenanga Research also forecasts that the momentum will turn positive year-on-year (y-o-y) this quarter and beyond that, which will see both the third and fourth quarters registering y-o-y and sequential growths.

While Bank Negara expected the growth in 2021 to be between 6% and 7.5%, it is conservative enough not to fan too much optimi *** , stressing that risks are tilted towards the downside, which stems from the unpredictable nature of Covid-19 and how quickly Malaysia can achieve herd immunity.Bank Negara bldg horzWhile Bank Negara expected the growth in 2021 to be between 6% and 7.5%, it is conservative enough not to fan too much optimi *** , stressing that risks are tilted towards the downside, which stems from the unpredictable nature of Covid-19 and how quickly Malaysia can achieve herd immunity.

During the virtual media briefing on the publication of the central bank’s annual report on Wednesday, governor Datuk Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus also made an appeal to the general public to register for the Covid-19 vaccination, saying that everyone has a role to play to Covid-proof the economy.

She said Malaysia is also poised to benefit from the rebound in growth of key trade partners particularly China, the United States and the eurozone as their economies account for 40% of Malaysia’s exports.

The manufacturing sector will be the main beneficiary here which, in turn, lends further support to the labour market, as around 70% of the manufacturing employment in Malaysia are in export-oriented industries like electrical and electronics (E&E) and refined petroleum and chemicals.

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